Research
Macroeconomics of Imperfect Capital Markets, International Finance, Public Finance Working Papers:
Macroprudential Regulation Versus Mopping Up After the Crash [PDF], with Olivier Jeanne, November 2011 (preliminary version) It
is optimal for policymakers to use a mix of ex-ante prudential measures
and ex-post stimulus measures in response to financial crises risk A dynamic model of counter-cyclical macro-prudential regulation for credit markets - cited in Economist's Economics Focus, WSJ.com Regulating Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: An Externality View [PDF], May 2010
A welfare-theoretic framework of capital flow regulation to reduce financial fragility in emerging market economies
Theoretical foundations for macro-prudential banking regulation to stem systemic risk-taking Undervaluation through Foreign Reserve Accumulation: Static Losses, Dynamic Gains [PDF | VoxEU Op-Ed], with Luis Servén, January 2011 Reserve accumulation may trigger positive learning-by-doing externalities in the tradable sector and improve welfare Capital Flows, Crises and Externalities [PDF], November 2011 Local currency and dollar bonds achieve full insurance in standard small open economy models
Excessive Dollar Borrowing in Emerging Markets: Balance Sheet Effects and Macroeconomic Externalities [PDF], April 2007, updated September 2010
Emerging market borrowers take on too much dollar debt because they don't internalize the contribution to financial fragility Changes in expectations about macro variables from the Economist Poll of Forecasters explain exchange rate movements Work in Progress: [contact me for preliminary versions] Booms, Busts and Growth, with Olivier Jeanne Bailouts and Financial Innovation Capital Controls and Currency Wars Publications: The New Economics of Prudential Capital Controls [ PDF WP | Publication | Kindle], IMF Economic Review 59(3), pp. 523-561, August 2011. Also IMF Working Paper 11/298.
An introduction to the emerging new literature on prudential capital controls in emerging economies
Hot Money and Serial Financial Crises [PDF WP | Publication | Slides], IMF Economic Review 59(2), pp. 306-339, June 2011. Crises in one area of the world economy cause "hot money" to flow into other areas and create the risk of serial financial crises Decoupling and Recoupling [PDF WP | Publication], with Agustin Roitman and Carlos Vegh, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 100(2), pp. 393-397, May 2010. Also NBER Working Paper w15907.
Excessive Volatility in Capital Flows: A Pigouvian Taxation Approach [PDF WP | Publication | Online Appendix], with Olivier Jeanne, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 100(2), pp. 403-407, May 2010. Also NBER Working Paper w15927. Dividend Taxation and Intertemporal Tax Arbitrage [PDF WP | Publication], with Joseph E. Stiglitz, Journal of Public Economics 93(1-2), pp. 142 - 159, Feb. 2009. Also NBER Working Paper w13858. An Econometric Method of Correcting for Unit Nonresponse Bias in Surveys [PDF WP], with Johan Mistiaen and Martin Ravallion, Journal of Econometrics, 136(1), pp. 213 - 235, Jan. 2007. Also World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3711. Survey Nonresponse and the Distribution of Income [PDF WP | Matlab code], with Johan Mistiaen and Martin Ravallion, Journal of Economic Inequality, 4(1), pp. 33 - 55, April 2006. Also World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3543. The Potential Consequences of Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: A Study of Three Candidate Regions [PDF WP], with Eduard Hochreiter and Pierre L. Siklos, International Journal of Finance & Economics, 8(4), pp. 327 - 349, Sept. 2003. Also OeNB Working Paper 76. |